Towards a dynamic criticality assessment: Linking agent- based demand - with material flow supply modelling ap- proaches

Emerging technologies such as information and communication-, photovoltaicor battery technologies are expected to significantly increase the demand for scarce metals in the near future. The recently developed methods to evaluate the criticality of mineral raw materials typically provide a ‘snapshot’ of the criticality of a certain material at one point in time by using static indicators both for supply risk and for the impacts of supply restrictions or economic importance. While allowing for insights into the mechanisms behind the criticality of raw materials, these methods cannot account for continuous changes in products and/or activities over time. We propose an approach which goes beyond this static state of the art insofar as it includes the dynamic interactions between different possible demand and supply configurations as a precondition for the evaluation of criticality. The framework developed integrates an agent-based behavior model, where demand emerges from individual agent decisions and interaction, into a dynamic material flow model, representing the materials’ stocks and flows across their lifetime. Within this framework, the evaluation of criticality is exemplarily specified for the environmental dimension by applying life-cycle assessment methodology.